Friday, May 16, 2008

Delegate math is hard, or Why I'm not researching pledged Clinton superdelegates any more

Upon more reading, I discovered weirdnesses in the delegate math I attempted in my last post. For instance: those as-yet unnamed 54 superdelegates? They're Florida's and Michigan's. Obviously their status is in limbo at least until the May 31 DNC rules panel meeting, and depending on how that goes their status could change all the way through the convention.

However, Andrew Sullivan this morning linked to a post at 538 that appears to exhaustively cover all the possibilities, and it seems it's just a matter of when Obama will reach 2209 delegates--the latest likely date being June 1 after Puerto Rico's primary, two days before the end of the primary campaign.

That's just fine with me. My real concern has been whether Hillary Clinton would prolong her campaign beyond June 4. The likelihood now seems that she will have literally lost by that point, under any permutation. Whew.


Blogger illusory tenant said...

Heya Blake. Welcome back to the blogosphere.

May 21, 2008 10:41 AM  
Blogger Blake said...

Thank you kindly, Wisconsin superlawyer!

May 21, 2008 10:51 AM  

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